Sports book futures bets are an increasing popular and potentially profitable way to wager on the outcome of a full season. There's a few common mistakes that novice players make that can be easily avoided by paying attention to the following:
Don't bet at the first place you look: In other words, shop around for the best price. This is essential to all aspects of sports betting, but especially important with futures wagers. You'll find more disparity between prices from book to book on futures than any other betting proposition. From a theoretical standpoint, a little work can yield much better value. From a practical standpoint, that means a higher payout should you win. The reason for this is that individual sportsbooks' aren't as worried about what the other guys are doing as they are with most other bets. Once the futures "market" is set books move the lines almost exclusively on their own financial position. The market simply doesn't respond as quickly to futures wagers as it does to individual game lines so it is essential to do the extra work to get the best price on your proposition.
Don't fixate on picking the winner from a competitive field: This may sound like strange advice, but from a theoretical standpoint it makes perfect sense. As with every other element of sport wagering its crucial to always focus not on winners and losers, but on the value you're getting on individual bets. For example, in most years there are several teams with a realistic shot of winning at the start of the NCAA basketball tournament. The problem is that these top teams invariably offer low paybacks that are less than their 'true odds' of winning. Every team is subject to the same variables like injuries, slumps, bad matchups but backing teams that are 'under the radar' at higher prices offer more compensation for these 'risks'.
In more theoretical terms, the 'true odds' of a Duke or similar top team winning the tournament are almost always higher than the price offered. Think of it this way--say we're betting Duke to win the national title at 2/1. This means that the Blue Devils would have to win more than 33% of the time to break even. So lets say, for the sake of argument, that we could play the tournament over 100 times. Would Duke come out on top more than 33 of these times? If not, they represent a poor value. Let's say that they win 30 of 100 times. This means that any price under +333 or thereabouts is a poor wagering value.
Note that the more competitive the market, the more difficult it is to find good value on a favorite. In a smaller field, or in a field with one dominant competitor it can be easier. For example, say the UFC were to have a tournament involving heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar and three male figure skaters. Even if Lesnar was slightly injured, or not at the top of his game he'd essentially have a 100% chance of beating the smaller, effeminate men who are untrained to fight. If a book installed Lesnar as a -1000 favorite in this spot, it could still be considered a good value. It's never easy to risk a lot to win a little, but from strictly a mathematical standpoint it makes sense.
Don't try to make a huge profit with little risk: Sports betting provides few opportunities to make a 'big killing'. It may happen occasionally, but even the big payouts when it occurs doesn't make chasing big longshots a good value. If you're serious about sports betting it is crucial to maintain your focus on the underlying numbers and look for value at all times. If you want to take a longshot at a huge jackpot, play the lottery but don't try to do it at a sportsbook.
Simply stated, the concept of value works the same at the bottom of the wagering ladder as it does at the top. Even if you're betting a big underdog at a huge price make sure that it accurately reflects the 'true odds' of the event occurring.
Don't bet one-sided futures or propositions: Though many of these are not futures per se, a lot of sportsbooks offer silly propositions on nonsport events as a way to get publicity, or just to be funny. Its important to make a distinction between this type of silly bet and more realistic nonsport propositions which frequently present good wagering value. Im talking the really outlandish stuff here. Not too long ago, a sportsbook posted a line on Martians landing on earth and painting the White House red by the end of the year. The "YES" was +2500 or thereabouts, which is far from reflective of the "true odds" of this unlikely event. Even if you're the type that collects classic Art Bell shows on tape and believes in UFOs you wouldn't place the probability of this happening at more than a fraction of a percent. The book only offered the "YES" side of the proposition, meaning that you couldn't lay even a huge price on the more likely outcome. Another book had a futures offering for what would happen first with Ashton Kutcher, Demi Moore and Bruce Willis. All of the options were very unlikely--Ashton and Bruce fighting on PPV and my favorite--and the longest odds--Ashton, Bruce and Demi hopping in bed together and releasing a porno video documenting the event. You'd receive a sizable payback if any of the events ever transpired, but I'm not exactly sure how to compute the "true odds" on "when pigs fly. - 29772
Don't bet at the first place you look: In other words, shop around for the best price. This is essential to all aspects of sports betting, but especially important with futures wagers. You'll find more disparity between prices from book to book on futures than any other betting proposition. From a theoretical standpoint, a little work can yield much better value. From a practical standpoint, that means a higher payout should you win. The reason for this is that individual sportsbooks' aren't as worried about what the other guys are doing as they are with most other bets. Once the futures "market" is set books move the lines almost exclusively on their own financial position. The market simply doesn't respond as quickly to futures wagers as it does to individual game lines so it is essential to do the extra work to get the best price on your proposition.
Don't fixate on picking the winner from a competitive field: This may sound like strange advice, but from a theoretical standpoint it makes perfect sense. As with every other element of sport wagering its crucial to always focus not on winners and losers, but on the value you're getting on individual bets. For example, in most years there are several teams with a realistic shot of winning at the start of the NCAA basketball tournament. The problem is that these top teams invariably offer low paybacks that are less than their 'true odds' of winning. Every team is subject to the same variables like injuries, slumps, bad matchups but backing teams that are 'under the radar' at higher prices offer more compensation for these 'risks'.
In more theoretical terms, the 'true odds' of a Duke or similar top team winning the tournament are almost always higher than the price offered. Think of it this way--say we're betting Duke to win the national title at 2/1. This means that the Blue Devils would have to win more than 33% of the time to break even. So lets say, for the sake of argument, that we could play the tournament over 100 times. Would Duke come out on top more than 33 of these times? If not, they represent a poor value. Let's say that they win 30 of 100 times. This means that any price under +333 or thereabouts is a poor wagering value.
Note that the more competitive the market, the more difficult it is to find good value on a favorite. In a smaller field, or in a field with one dominant competitor it can be easier. For example, say the UFC were to have a tournament involving heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar and three male figure skaters. Even if Lesnar was slightly injured, or not at the top of his game he'd essentially have a 100% chance of beating the smaller, effeminate men who are untrained to fight. If a book installed Lesnar as a -1000 favorite in this spot, it could still be considered a good value. It's never easy to risk a lot to win a little, but from strictly a mathematical standpoint it makes sense.
Don't try to make a huge profit with little risk: Sports betting provides few opportunities to make a 'big killing'. It may happen occasionally, but even the big payouts when it occurs doesn't make chasing big longshots a good value. If you're serious about sports betting it is crucial to maintain your focus on the underlying numbers and look for value at all times. If you want to take a longshot at a huge jackpot, play the lottery but don't try to do it at a sportsbook.
Simply stated, the concept of value works the same at the bottom of the wagering ladder as it does at the top. Even if you're betting a big underdog at a huge price make sure that it accurately reflects the 'true odds' of the event occurring.
Don't bet one-sided futures or propositions: Though many of these are not futures per se, a lot of sportsbooks offer silly propositions on nonsport events as a way to get publicity, or just to be funny. Its important to make a distinction between this type of silly bet and more realistic nonsport propositions which frequently present good wagering value. Im talking the really outlandish stuff here. Not too long ago, a sportsbook posted a line on Martians landing on earth and painting the White House red by the end of the year. The "YES" was +2500 or thereabouts, which is far from reflective of the "true odds" of this unlikely event. Even if you're the type that collects classic Art Bell shows on tape and believes in UFOs you wouldn't place the probability of this happening at more than a fraction of a percent. The book only offered the "YES" side of the proposition, meaning that you couldn't lay even a huge price on the more likely outcome. Another book had a futures offering for what would happen first with Ashton Kutcher, Demi Moore and Bruce Willis. All of the options were very unlikely--Ashton and Bruce fighting on PPV and my favorite--and the longest odds--Ashton, Bruce and Demi hopping in bed together and releasing a porno video documenting the event. You'd receive a sizable payback if any of the events ever transpired, but I'm not exactly sure how to compute the "true odds" on "when pigs fly. - 29772
About the Author:
Ross Everett is a widely published widely published freelance sports writer and noted authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.
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